The same week One Marina Gardens broke above $3,200 psf for the first time, a unit at Scotts Tower changed hands at $1,762 psf ā its lowest-ever recorded price. The CCR is not one market.
What's Actually Happening
The $3,290 psf record at One Marina Gardens belongs to a 1,647 sq ft four-bedder on the 28th floor ā the kind of transaction that doesn't need to compete with anyone on price because there's nothing directly comparable in a waterfront precinct at Marina South. What matters more is the baseline: at launch in April 2025, the project averaged $2,953 psf. Fourteen months and 640 units later, the average sits at $2,966 psf ā barely any drift. This project is not relying on headline records to shift inventory. It's clearing stock steadily at a firm average, which is a more meaningful signal than a single trophy transaction.
URA data for the 90 days to mid-July 2026 shows D01 recorded 138 total transactions, with 109 new sales averaging $2,944 psf. That's sustained pricing at scale ā not a thin market producing outliers. One Marina Gardens is setting the pace for the precinct and, at 68% sold with a 2028 TOP, the remaining 297 units are entering the window where premium-floor inventory starts to thin faster than buyers expect.
The Scotts Tower story is the counter-narrative. A 624 sq ft one-bedder in Newton traded at $1,762 psf ā the first time any unit there has dipped below $1,800 psf. The development was completed in 2016, meaning it's a 10-year-old 99-year leasehold now sitting at roughly 89 years remaining. For a small unit type with narrowing tenant appeal and no planned asset enhancement, this is not a market signal ā it's a product signal. The CCR isn't softening. Older leaseholds with weak unit profiles are.
| Project | District / Tenure | Transaction (Jun 2026) | PSF | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One Marina Gardens | D01, 99-yr leasehold | 4BR, 28F, 1,647 sq ft ā $5.42M (Jun 17) | $3,290 | New project record; first above $3,200 psf in this cycle |
| One Devonshire | D09, Freehold | 2BR, 904 sq ft ā $2.76M (Jun 22) | $3,053 | New project high; freehold D09 resale holding firm |
| The Scotts Tower | D09, 99-yr (completed 2016) | 1BR, 624 sq ft ā $1.1M (Jun 23) | $1,762 | New all-time project low; lease decay visible in pricing |
What Ron Is Watching
- If One Marina Gardens sets a second consecutive quarterly PSF record ā Marina South is establishing its own price tier independent of the CCR average, and units bought at sub-$3,000 psf today will be priced at a visible discount to market by early 2027.
- If pre-2020 leasehold condos in D09 or D11 continue hitting new transacted lows ā upgrader liquidity for that product profile is thinning. Owners of similar stock should model their exit window now, not after the next competing new launch reaches TOP.
- If the CCR-RCR price gap narrows further in 3Q2026 flash estimates ā the CCR premium is compressing, which historically either leads to a CCR re-rating or a RCR correction. The direction it resolves matters differently depending on where you're positioned.
- If D01 new sale absorption drops below 80 units per quarter ā demand has cooled enough that the remaining One Marina Gardens inventory could see selective price adjustments ahead of TOP.
Who This Actually Affects
| Who | What It Means | What to Do Now |
|---|---|---|
| CCR buyers considering One Marina | New record on 4BR confirms premium demand is real, but the floor average ($2,966 psf) has barely shifted ā smaller units are still rationally priced relative to the trajectory | Map remaining 2BR inventory against what's left; sub-$3,000 psf entry may close within 2 quarters at current absorption pace |
| Owners of pre-2020 leasehold CCR condos | Scotts Tower's $1,762 psf shows older leaseholds are losing ground against newer CCR alternatives ā the gap to new launch pricing is closing fast | Run a like-for-like comparison against current new launch PSF; if the gap is under 15%, the case for upgrading now is stronger than it appears |
| CCR investors (rental play) | 109 new sales in D01 over 90 days means significant deferred rental supply arriving post-TOP in 2028 ā rental competition will sharpen at that point | Model yield at $2,944 psf entry vs current D01 rent rates; securing tenants pre-TOP when supply is thin gives better initial yield |
| Freehold resale buyers in D09 | One Devonshire's new $3,053 psf high confirms freehold D09 is holding a premium above comparable leasehold stock ā the tenure spread is widening | If budget extends to $3,000+ psf, freehold resale in D09 offers better long-term security than comparably priced new leasehold in the same area |
Ron's Read
The transaction worth understanding at One Marina Gardens isn't the $3,290 psf record. It's that 640 units have been sold at an average of $2,966 psf ā within $13 of launch pricing, across 14 months, through two interest rate cycles and a global tariff shock. That's what firm, broad-based demand looks like. It doesn't announce itself with a record transaction. It just keeps clearing inventory without concessions.
The practical read: if you're waiting for a meaningful CCR correction before entering One Marina Gardens, look at the absorption data. At current velocity, the remaining 297 units ā weighted toward larger-format stock ā will clear in under two years. By the time the market signals a correction has arrived, the unit type and floor you're targeting may not exist. The better timing question is not whether to wait, but whether what you want will still be available in six months.
If you're tracking a specific project or district, I can pull the last 6 months of actual transacted PSF ā not asking prices, done deals. That's the only number that matters.