The Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale market in Singapore continued its upward trajectory in 4Q2024, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth. With a 2.6% quarterly increase, resale prices surged by 9.7% across the year, nearly doubling the 4.9% increase seen in 2023.
While the rate of increase in 4Q2024 (2.6%) was slightly lower than 3Q2024 (2.7%), demand remained strong, driven by a limited supply of flats reaching Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) and growing interest in larger units like five-room and executive flats.
Key Market Trends and Insights
1. Rising Prices Across HDB Resale Market
- Five-room flats saw the highest price growth, averaging $754,097 (up 2.2% q-o-q).
- Four-room flats also rose 2.2% q-o-q to $652,544.
- The Central Area saw the highest price increase at 25.6% q-o-q, followed by Toa Payoh (12.1%), Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%), and Bedok (6.1%).
2. Record Number of Million-Dollar HDB Transactions
The year 2024 saw 1,035 million-dollar HDB transactions, with 285 such deals in 4Q2024 alone.
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Mature estates dominated the million-dollar market:
- Kallang/Whampoa (156 units)
- Toa Payoh (144 units)
- Bukit Merah (135 units)
3. Seasonal Drop in Transaction Volume
While prices continued to rise, HDB resale transactions fell by 21.1% q-o-q to 6,424 units in 4Q2024 due to:
- Year-end holiday and festive season lull.
- Lower interest rates drawing buyers toward private and Executive Condominium (EC) markets.
- Increased participation in October 2024's record BTO launch (8,573 flats).
Despite this, 2024 saw an 8.4% rise in overall HDB resale transactions (28,986 units), the highest since 2021.
4. Shrinking MOP Supply in 2025 Could Impact Prices
A key factor driving 2024’s price surge was the limited number of newly MOP-ed flats. In 2025, this number will drop further, with only 6,976 flats reaching MOP, a 41.6% decrease from 2024 (11,952 flats).
However, HDB is ramping up new supply:
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25,000 new flats across three BTO launches in 2025, including:
- 19,600 BTO units
- 5,500 Sale of Balance Flats (SBF)
- SBF flats remain a top choice for buyers who want shorter wait times.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2025
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For Buyers:
- Prices are expected to rise further in 2025, but new BTO and SBF launches provide additional options.
- Expect continued demand for five-room and executive flats in key towns.
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For Sellers:
- With fewer MOP flats entering the market, resale prices may continue to climb.
- HDB resale flats in mature estates remain highly sought after.
Price Projections for 2025:
- Analysts expect HDB resale prices to rise between 3.5% to 8% in 2025.
- Transaction volume is estimated to be between 26,000 and 27,000 units.
Summary Highlights
✅ HDB resale prices rose 9.7% in 2024, nearly double 2023’s 4.9% increase.
✅ Million-dollar HDB transactions hit a record 1,035 units in 2024.
✅ Five-room and four-room flats saw the highest price growth in 4Q2024.
✅ Transaction volume fell 21.1% q-o-q due to seasonal factors and increased BTO participation.
✅ Supply of newly MOP flats will shrink by 41.6% in 2025, potentially driving further price increases.
✅ HDB resale prices are projected to rise by 3.5% to 8% in 2025.
The HDB resale market remains dynamic and competitive, with prices expected to trend upward in 2025. Whether you’re a buyer looking for a home or a seller considering your options, staying ahead of market trends is crucial.
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