Modest HDB resale-price growth seen in 2026 despite rising supply

The outlook for Housing & Development Board (HDB) resale flats in 2026 appears more balanced than bullish. While prices are still expected to rise moderately, the combination of a surge in new and recently MOP-eligible flats and a shift in buyer preference toward newer BTO/SBF projects means growth is likely to cool. The heady gains seen in 2024 (9.7%) are behind us; the market is transitioning to a more stable, measured growth phase — one less driven by scarcity, more by supply and buyer selectivity.

🔢 Key Takeaways (infographic-style)

• 🏠 Resale-price forecast: +1 % to +5 % in 2026 — modest but positive growth. 
• 📈 2025 baseline: +2.9 % in first 9 months, after a 9.7 % jump in 2024. 
• 🆕 Supply boost: Surge in flats hitting minimum occupation period (MOP) — especially in mature estates — plus steady BTO/SBF completions. 
• 🏙️ Hot towns for MOP flats in 2026: Punggol, Queenstown, Toa Payoh (among the top in flats reaching MOP). 
• 💡 Buyer behaviour: Many are shifting interest toward new BTO/SBF flats — dampening strong demand for older resale flats.
• 💎 Premium resale flats: Well-located, newer or just-MOP flats remain sought after — sustaining “million-dollar flat” interest despite broader market moderation. 

What This Means for the Market

• Expect steady, not sky-high, price growth — good for stability, less uncertainty for buyers and sellers alike.
• Flats in mature estates or nearing MOP will likely remain the most desirable — these may outperform the broader market.
• Buyers favouring new BTO/SBF launches could continue to temper demand for older resale stock, especially in non-mature or less connected towns.
• Sellers of older flats may need to adjust expectations, particularly for lease-age units or flats in less central locations.

✅ Summary Highlights

• ✅ HDB resale-flat prices set to rise 1–5 % in 2026, signalling modest growth.
• ✅ Supersupply — via MOP flats and new BTO/SBF units — will help stabilise the market.
• ✅ Mature towns and newly MOP flats remain favourites for buyers; older, less central flats may see weaker demand.
• ✅ Million-dollar flat segment still active, supported by demand for premium resale flats.

Call to Action:
If you're writing about Singapore’s housing sector — or advising clients — now’s the time to zoom in on location, age, and lease profile. Flats in mature estates or just MOP-ed will likely yield the strongest interest.

(Source)