After several years of strong momentum, Singapore’s HDB resale market is showing clear signs of moderation. But this is not a signal of weakening demand or fading confidence. Instead, it reflects something far more constructive — a sustained and deliberate expansion of public housing supply that is beginning to rebalance the market naturally.
As a real estate agent on the ground, this shift is important. We are moving away from a scarcity-driven environment towards one where buyers have more choices, better timing options, and more realistic price expectations.
A clear slowdown — and why it matters
According to HDB’s latest flash estimates, resale prices rose about 2.9% in 2025, a significant moderation from the 9.7% increase in 2024. This marks a structural inflection point rather than a cyclical dip.
Instead of relying heavily on cooling measures, the market is responding to real supply coming on stream. That makes this reset healthier, more durable, and less disruptive for both buyers and sellers.
Infographic: What’s driving the market reset 📊
🏗️ Stronger BTO pipeline
- Around 55,000 BTO flats planned from 2025–2027
- First-time buyers now have viable alternatives to resale
- Reduced pressure from buyers “forced” into resale due to long waits
🏠 Expanded Sale of Balance Flats (SBF)
- 10,252 SBF units released in 2025, up from just 1,588 in 2024
- Shorter waiting times attract near-term buyers
- Demand is spread across multiple housing channels, not concentrated in resale
📅 Proactive supply planning
- 19,600 BTO flats launching in 2026 across three exercises
- Over 4,000 flats with waiting times under three years
- Government signals flexibility to exceed targets if demand remains strong
🔑 Rising MOP supply ahead
- Flats reaching MOP:
- 2025: ~6,973 units
- 2026: ~13,484 units
- 2027: ~18,939 units
- Newer resale stock improves choice and reduces aggressive bidding
📍 Location still matters
- Strong MOP supply coming from Punggol, Queenstown, Tampines, Toa Payoh and Bedok
- Centrality, connectivity and estate maturity continue to support prices
What this means for buyers and sellers
This phase is not about falling prices — it’s about normalisation.
Buyers benefit from:
- More choices across BTO, SBF and resale
- Less urgency and fewer bidding wars
- Better ability to match budget, timeline and location
Sellers face:
- A more competitive environment
- Greater price differentiation based on flat attributes
- A need for realistic pricing and proper positioning
Looking ahead, resale prices in 2026 are expected to grow at a more sustainable pace of around 2.5% to 4.5%, supported by genuine housing demand rather than scarcity.
Summary: Key takeaways ✅
✅ HDB resale price growth has moderated due to real supply expansion
✅ BTO, SBF and MOP flats are redistributing demand more evenly
✅ The market is stabilising through planning, not abrupt intervention
✅ Buyers gain choice; sellers operate in a healthier, competitive market
✅ Long-term outlook remains stable and resilient
Thinking of buying or selling an HDB flat?
Understanding timing, supply cycles and location dynamics is now more important than ever. If you’d like a personalised assessment of how these changes affect your plans — whether upgrading, right-sizing or entering the market — feel free to reach out. I’m happy to walk through the options with you.