Despite several rounds of cooling measures, HDB resale prices have soared over 50% since 2019. This sharp rise highlights a crucial reality: demand curbs can slow the market temporarily, but it’s consistent supply that truly moderates price growth.
The government’s stepped-up BTO efforts in 2022 and 2023 led to a visible slowdown in resale price growth. But to truly keep resale prices stable and public housing affordable, analysts say the sweet spot is 23,000–25,000 BTO units launched annually. This article breaks down why that number matters — and why BTO, not curbs, is the key.
📊 Infographic: The Data Behind Singapore’s HDB Resale Market
📈 HDB resale prices rose over 50%
- Bottomed in 2Q2019
- Climbed despite loan curbs and wait-out rules
🛑 Demand-side measures since 2021
- 3 rounds of LTV tightening
- MSR interest rate raised
- 15-month wait-out for private property owners
➤ Impact: Short-term dip, prices still climbed
🏗️ Supply-side response: BTO matters more
-
FY2011–2013: >24,000 BTO bookings/year
➤ Resale growth slowed -
FY2015–2019: Supply scaled back (~16,000/year)
➤ Resale prices surged -
FY2022: 25,574 bookings | FY2023: 24,020
➤ Price growth slowed to 5.8% by FY2023
📦 SBF flats ≠ consistent impact
- No strong link between SBF bookings and resale volume/prices
- Flat availability, town-specific demand, and EIP constraints limit influence
📊 Newly MOP flats = delayed effect
- Weak price impact in MOP year
- Stronger correlation (86.2%) appears 2 years after MOP
🎯 Key takeaway: 21,000+ bookings is the magic number
- Requires 23,000–25,000 BTO launches/year
- BTO booking volume more consistently cools prices than curbs
✅ Summary Highlights
✅ HDB resale prices surged >50% since 2019 despite multiple rounds of cooling measures
✅ BTO booking volume is the most consistent driver of resale price moderation
✅ Minimum of 21,000 BTO bookings/year needed to stabilise prices
✅ SBF and newly MOP flats have limited or delayed impact on pricing trends
✅ Future affordability depends on consistent and sufficient BTO launch supply
Looking to plan your next move?
Whether you’re entering the resale market or eyeing a BTO project, let’s discuss your best options based on supply cycles and timing.
📲 Reach out today to make smarter housing decisions with real market data at your side.