EC land was supposed to cool down this year. Instead, 13 developers turned up for one 185-unit site in Sembawang — more than three times the usual crowd — and the winner paid a record $825 psf ppr to get it.
The last five EC sites drew 3 to 5 bids each. The last time any EC site drew more than 10 was Sumang Walk, back in 2018. And this happened after the rules got tougher: a 10-year MOP, no more Deferred Payment Scheme, and 90% of units set aside for first-timers. Call it a stress test… the developers passed it with room to spare.
What's actually happening
The Canberra Drive EC site closed on 1 October 2026 with 13 bids. The top bid, from a consortium of Santarli Realty, Heeton Holdings, Kay Lim Holdings and Sunray Group Holdings, came in at $163.9 million, or $825 psf ppr. That is 2.7% above the second bid (Hong Leong Holdings and TID at $803 psf ppr) and 3.9% above the old EC record of $794 psf ppr set at Woodlands Drive 17 in January this year.
Look at the top five: $825, $803, $798, $770, $735. Five developers, including CDL, were all inside a $90 psf band. That is not one over-eager bidder. That is a field of developers who all ran their numbers and concluded the site works. The 13th bid, from Sim Lian Group at $361 psf ppr, sits less than half the winning price (56% lower). Some bids are just there to be on the board.
And this happened with the new EC rules already in force since May 2026: the minimum occupation period stretched from 5 to 10 years, the Deferred Payment Scheme is gone, and the first-timer allocation went from 70% to 90%. Developers priced in a narrower, more owner-occupier buyer pool and still bid a record. That tells you what they think of this location: roughly five minutes on foot from Canberra MRT, with Sembawang Primary and Wellington Primary both within 1km.
The bids, side by side
| Rank | Bidder | Bid | psf ppr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santarli Realty / Heeton / Kay Lim / Sunray | $163.9M | $825 |
| 2 | Hong Leong Holdings & TID | $159.43M | $803 |
| 3 | Apex Asia / BHCC / HSB Development | $158.6M | $798 |
| 4 | Chan Rong Fen Construction & BS Capital | $153M | $770 |
| 5 | City Developments Ltd | $146.1M | $735 |
| 13 | Sim Lian Group | $71.72M | $361 |
Bid figures sourced from EdgeProp, 1 Oct 2026. Ranks 6 to 12 not published in the source.
How unusual is 13 bids?
Very. The five EC sites sold before this one drew 3 to 5 bids each, about 4 on average. Canberra Drive drew 13, more than three times the usual field.
The last time an EC site drew more than 10 bids was Sumang Walk in Punggol, February 2018, with 17. That is more than eight and a half years ago. Even Canberra Link, the EC site just down the road in 2018, drew 9.
| Tender closed | EC site | Bids |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2018 | Sumang Walk (Punggol) | 17 |
| Sep 2018 | Canberra Link (Sembawang) | 9 |
| Apr 2025 | Miltonia Close (Yishun) | 3 |
| Aug 2025 | Senja Close (Bukit Panjang) | 5 |
| Aug 2025 | Woodlands Drive 17 | 5 |
| Sep 2025 | Sembawang Road | 4 |
| Jan 2026 | Woodlands Drive 17 (Plot 2) | 3 |
| Oct 2026 | Canberra Drive | 13 |
Bid counts from HDB tender results as reported by EdgeProp, ERA, 99.co and PropertyGuru.
Developers bid more when they think they can sell. A jump from 4 bids to 13, with the new 10-year MOP already in force, says the industry sees Canberra as one of the few EC locations where buyers will still show up in numbers.
What developers will charge: the part no one else publishes
This is the part no one else publishes. Below is derived from RLB's published construction cost benchmarks and the winning land price. No analyst estimate was used as an input. Analysts come in at the end as a cross-check.
| Component (psf) | Low | High | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land (winning bid) | $825 | $825 | EdgeProp / tender result |
| Construction all-in, boutique-adjusted | $384 | $484 | RLB Singapore & Regional Report, Dec 2025, p.21: Good Quality Condo $343–$432, plus 12% for a sub-200-unit scheme (stated assumption) |
| Professional fees | $12 | $19 | 3–4% of construction (stated assumption) |
| Finance | $91 | $137 | 3% p.a. over 2.5 yrs to 3.5% p.a. over 3 yrs, on land plus construction (calculated) |
| Marketing | $26 | $29 | 1.5% of gross development value (stated assumption) |
| Breakeven | $1,338 | $1,494 |
Add a standard developer margin of 15% to 18% and the launch price that makes this site work from the cost side is $1,540 to $1,760 psf ($1,338 x 1.15 at the bottom, $1,494 x 1.18 at the top). As a sanity check, our database holds breakeven estimates for the last four EC sites (Sembawang Road, Senja Close, Woodlands Drive 17 twice) with non-land costs between $585 and $821 psf. Ours comes out at $513 to $669, so we are in the same neighbourhood and on the leaner side.
The analyst read: PropNex's Wong Siew Ying expects an average selling price around $1,900 psf. That is well above our cost-side range. A $1,900 launch on a $1,338–$1,494 breakeven is a 27% to 42% margin, so either construction costs for a small EC come in higher than the RLB benchmark suggests, or developers expect to price into demand rather than to cost. I don't adjust my numbers to fit theirs. I'll just say the gap is where the real question sits.
Buy now vs wait
Here is what is already on the ground in the same corridor, from URA transactions since 2023:
| Project | Resale avg psf | Txns | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Brownstone (638 units, TOP Jul 2015) | $1,391 | 215 | Aug 2026 |
| The Visionaire (632 units, TOP Apr 2016) | $1,381 | 281 | Sep 2026 |
| Parc Life | $1,328 | 245 | Sep 2026 |
| 1 Canberra | $1,235 | 116 | Sep 2026 |
Take the Visionaire at $1,381 and a new launch at $1,900. That is about $520 psf, or roughly $520,000 more on a 1,000 sqft unit, for an EC that will not be finished for several years (my estimate: a launch next year means TOP around 2030 to 2031) and then locks you in for 10 years before you can sell on the open market. Meanwhile the Brownstone and Visionaire are already past 10 years since TOP, which is a different kind of freedom.
So when does the new launch win? For the first-time couple with a combined income under $18,000 a month, who qualifies for the 90% first-timer allocation, wants to be five minutes from Canberra MRT, and is happy to commit to a decade. For that couple, price per square foot is not the whole picture: you are buying a new 99-year lease with an MRT door and two primary schools inside 1km, and the resale alternatives are 10 years old. The honest trade-off is that you pay a clear premium and you wait.
The Canberra corridor is also not short of EC stock. Four ECs delivered between 2015 and 2021 (Brownstone 638, Visionaire 632, Parc Canberra 496, Provence Residence 413) add up to 2,179 units. This site adds roughly 185 more. Small number, so scarcity pricing is plausible, but the resale market next door is deep.
- If the launch price lands near $1,900 — Brownstone and Visionaire resale at about $1,385 becomes the value story, and their owners get a stronger asking-price argument.
- If the developer prices closer to $1,700 to $1,800 — the 10-year MOP and the end of deferred payment are capping what EC buyers will pay, and the headline land price overstated what the market will carry.
- If the next EC site draws 10 or more bids — $825 psf ppr stops being a record and becomes the new floor for EC land.
- If first-month take-up is slow under the 90% first-timer allocation — the price ceiling gets tested early, and buyers get more negotiating room.
Who this actually affects
| Who | What it means | What to do now |
|---|---|---|
| First-time couple, household income under $18,000 | You are the target buyer: 90% first-timer allocation, 2-month priority period | Work out your max loan and eligibility now, before the showflat opens and the sales pitch starts |
| Owner in The Brownstone or The Visionaire | A launch near $1,900 supports your asking price; a $1,700 launch does the opposite | Pull your project's last 6 months of transacted psf before deciding to list or hold |
| HDB upgrader in Sembawang or Yishun | The EC premium over resale is about $500 psf; the subsidy is now tighter | Compare the new EC against 10-year-old EC resale at $1,235–$1,391 psf before you look at private condos |
| Investor looking for a quick flip | 10-year MOP, no deferred payment: this is a hold, not a trade | Skip it, or size it as a decade-long holding |
| Family eyeing Sembawang Primary or Wellington Primary | Both are within 1km of the site | Confirm the exact distance to each gate on OneMap before counting on it |
Ron's read
Thirteen bids on a 185-unit site tells me developers are hungry, and that EC land is being priced as a scarce asset even after the rules got tighter. The consortium paid $825 psf ppr; for that to work they need to launch somewhere between $1,540 and $1,760 on cost alone. I expect them to aim higher, probably $1,750 to $1,850 psf. I would treat $1,900 as the ceiling, not the base case.
The nearby resale ECs at about $1,385 are the benchmark every buyer will hold the launch price against. If you are a first-time buyer who qualifies, wait for the showflat pricing and compare it with resale in the same corridor before you commit. If you are not eligible, the resale ECs next door are the better value story until the numbers say otherwise.
Tracking this site as a potential buyer, a resale owner in the catchment, or an upgrader mapping your timeline? I can pull the last 12 months of transacted PSF for comparable units and show you exactly where prices sit today versus where land cost implies they're heading.
Ready to talk numbers?
No pitch. Just an honest conversation about your unit.
